![]() Ministers seem to be underestimating the health shock to the UK workforce, which many experts believe is not going away any time soon. Goodwin said the composition of those inactive was also changing, after April’s figures showed the number of people unable to work due to long-term sickness had reached a fresh record of 2.55 million. And anyway, it was a trend that had most likely already run out of steam, he added. The consultancy’s chief UK economist, Andrew Goodwin, said much of the fall in inactivity was due to students working part time, which was not going to close the skills gap in sectors screaming for highly trained staff. The number of people of working age not in the labour market and considered “inactive” rather than unemployed decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 21% in the three months to March from the previous quarter. In the most recent figures covering the three months to the end of April, job vacancies fell by 55,000 to just over 1m, the 10th consecutive quarterly drop. In another blow to hopes of a sharp slide in inflation, the consultancy Oxford Economics said the easing of the labour market could prove to be shortlived. In its most recent economic outlook, the Bank of England said inflation would remain stickier than its officials had estimated back in February, prompting an increase in the forecast for CPI from 3.25% in the last three months of the year to 5.1%. ![]() However, predictions made at the beginning of the year that inflation would slump to 3% by Christmas have been torn up in recent weeks after food continued to become more expensive. The consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation is forecast to fall further this year as 12 consecutive interest-rate rises by the central bank take their toll on the disposable incomes of households and businesses. Forecasters expect April’s rate will have dropped by as much as two percentage points from the 10.1% reported in March, reflecting a sharp fall in energy prices and an easing of pressures in the labour market. This week, official figures, to be announced on Wednesday, are expected to show the overall rate of inflation, excluding housing costs, falling to single figures for the first time in seven months.
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